Joseph Smoak

Climate change is a major threat to mangrove ecosystems worldwide but particularly those in arid regions that exist near the limit of tolerance to extremes in temperature, precipitation, and salinity. Here we examine Persian Gulf arid mangrove ecosystems from the Nayband and Mond Protected Area in the south-west region of Iran to determine the ability of tidal mangrove forests to respond to rapid urban and industrial development, sea-level rise (SLR), and temperature and precipitation changes. Sea level has been rising by approximately 4 mm yr−1 in this region and might be intensified by subsidence on the order of 1–2 mm yr−1 due to natural phenomena as well as anthropogenic activities associated with fluid extraction. We use remote sensing along with statistical analysis to effectively monitor mangrove area changes over 60 years and infer responses to past environmental trends. Our spatiotemporal analysis demonstrates expansion in some areas and reduction in others. NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) results indicate that Nayband mangroves are healthy and expanded between the years of 1990 and 2002 which could be in response to rising temperatures and above-average precipitation. However, NDVI changes after 2002 demonstrate the mangrove health and area have decreased which could be in response to industrial and urban development that occurred immediately after 1997. The natural stresses in this extreme system are been exacerbated by climate change and anthropogenic pressures as such it is essential to develop ways to reduce vulnerability through strategic management planning.