26 آبان 1403
محمود افشاري

محمود افشاری

مرتبه علمی: دانشیار
نشانی: دانشکده مهندسی سیستم های هوشمند و علوم داده - گروه آمار
تحصیلات: دکترای تخصصی / آمار
تلفن: 07731223328
دانشکده: دانشکده مهندسی سیستم های هوشمند و علوم داده

مشخصات پژوهش

عنوان Odd Log‑Logistic XGamma Model: Bayesian and Classical Estimation with Risk Analysis Utilizing Reinsurance Revenues Data
نوع پژوهش مقالات در نشریات
کلیدواژه‌ها
Bayesian estimation · Cullen and Frey plot · Key risk indicators · Lindley’s approximation · Risk exposure · Value-at-risk · XGamma model
مجله JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
شناسه DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s44199-024-00086-8
پژوهشگران وحید رنجبر (نفر اول) ، مراد علیزاده (نفر دوم) ، محمود افشاری (نفر سوم) ، هیثم یوسف (نفر چهارم)

چکیده

Efective risk exposure descriptions can be made using continuous distributions. To illustrate the level of exposure to a certain danger, it is better to use a single number, or at the very least, a small set of numbers. These risk exposure numbers, which are commonly referred to as signifcant risk indicators, are unquestionably the output of a particular model. In this regard, fve key indicators are utilized to defne the risk exposure in the reinsurance revenues data. For this specifc purpose we introduce a new distribution called odd log-logistic XGamma model . We estimated the parameters using maximum-likelihood method, least squares method and Bayesian method. Monte Carlo simulation study is performed under a set of conditions and controls. The risk exposure under the reinsurance revenue data was also described using fve important risk indicators, including value-at-risk, tail-value-at-risk, tail variance, tail mean-variance, and mean excess loss function. These statistical measures were developed for the proposed new model