November 16, 2024
Mahmoud Afshari

Mahmoud Afshari

Academic Rank: Associate professor
Address: Mahmoud Afshari, Associate Professor. Department of Statistics, College of science Persian Gulf University, 7516913798, Iran E-mail:afshar.5050@gmail.com or afshar@pgu.ac.ir TEL:00989177125766
Degree: Ph.D in statistics
Phone: 07731223328
Faculty: Faculty of Intelligent Systems and Data Science

Research

Title Odd Log‑Logistic XGamma Model: Bayesian and Classical Estimation with Risk Analysis Utilizing Reinsurance Revenues Data
Type Article
Keywords
Bayesian estimation · Cullen and Frey plot · Key risk indicators · Lindley’s approximation · Risk exposure · Value-at-risk · XGamma model
Journal JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s44199-024-00086-8
Researchers vahid ranjbar (First researcher) , Morad Alizadeh (Second researcher) , Mahmoud Afshari (Third researcher) , Haitham Yousof (Fourth researcher)

Abstract

Efective risk exposure descriptions can be made using continuous distributions. To illustrate the level of exposure to a certain danger, it is better to use a single number, or at the very least, a small set of numbers. These risk exposure numbers, which are commonly referred to as signifcant risk indicators, are unquestionably the output of a particular model. In this regard, fve key indicators are utilized to defne the risk exposure in the reinsurance revenues data. For this specifc purpose we introduce a new distribution called odd log-logistic XGamma model . We estimated the parameters using maximum-likelihood method, least squares method and Bayesian method. Monte Carlo simulation study is performed under a set of conditions and controls. The risk exposure under the reinsurance revenue data was also described using fve important risk indicators, including value-at-risk, tail-value-at-risk, tail variance, tail mean-variance, and mean excess loss function. These statistical measures were developed for the proposed new model