Mohammad Rezaei

Abstract Economic shocks due to the occurrence of uncertainty as well as the effect it has on various financial programs and some macro indicators, change the motivation of monetary actors and affect the production of the country's economic sectors. For this purpose, the ARDL model is used for shrimp production on an annual basis and the VECM model is used for seasonal shrimp export. The results show that exchange rate shock, price, and white spot disease affect shrimp production. Exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on shrimp shock exports and both interest rates and prices have a negative and significant impact. The results of variance decomposition indicate that the most influential factor between the explanatory variables is related to the exchange rate, which after about 10 chapters explains 22% of export fluctuations, and interest rates and prices with about 9 and 5, respectively. The important point in the production and export of shrimp is that the conditions of sanctions have not affected this industry, because of its export value, it can plan for it in any economic situation and increase investment in this sector. INTRODUCTION: Bushehr Province, one of the major shrimp-producing regions in Iran, has experienced significant fluctuations in shrimp production and exports in recent years. White spot syndrome virus has been identified as the primary cause of these fluctuations. This disease caused substantial damage to the province's shrimp farming industry in 2005, 2014, and 2019. This study aims to investigate the factors influencing the fluctuations in shrimp production and exports in Bushehr Province. The results indicate that, in addition to diseases, macroeconomic factors such as economic shocks and sanctions can also impact shrimp production and exports. To examine this issue in more detail, econometric ARDL and VAR models have been employed. Using these models, the relationship between macroeconomic variables and shrimp production and e