November 25, 2024
Reza Roshan

Reza Roshan

Academic Rank: Associate professor
Address:
Degree: Ph.D in -
Phone: -
Faculty: School of Business and Economics

Research

Title
The Impact of Oil Price Shocks Through the Channels of Monetary Policy Transfer on Iran's Production and Inflation
Type Thesis
Keywords
شوك قيمت نفت، كانالهاي انتقال پولي، توليد، تورم، خودرگرسيون برداري ساختاري
Researchers saeid moradi (Student) , Hadi Keshavarz (Primary advisor) , Reza Roshan (Advisor)

Abstract

Oil is one of the most important natural resources and assets of any country. Price fluctuations have effects on economic variables. Having such a resource will have positive and negative effects for any country. Countries such as Iran, which are economically dependent on oil, are vulnerable to oil price shocks, and oil price fluctuations affect the performance of economic variables. When oil prices rise sharply, foreign exchange earnings from oil sales increase, which in turn increases the general level of prices and increases imports and decreases production. Also, as oil prices fall, foreign exchange earnings for oil-exporting countries decline and the government is forced to impose restrictions on imports. As developing countries such as Iran import capital goods and raw materials needed in the manufacturing sector, restrictions on imports have adverse effects on the manufacturing sector of the country, which ultimately leads to pressures. Inflation, rising exchange rates, recession and unemployment. The purpose of addressing this issue was to examine the effects of oil price fluctuations through monetary policy transmission channels on Iran's production and inflation. Statistical data were prepared quarterly from 2004: 1 to 2016: 4 and structural vector autoregression method was used. The results of the instantaneous reaction functions show that the effect of positive oil price shock on credit channels, asset prices (stock prices) and exchange rate is positive, but the effect of positive oil price shock has a negative effect on interest rates and then Has been positive. Production was also positive for credit channels and asset prices (stock prices) but negative for exchange rate and interest rate channels. Inflation has also responded positively to all channels. Finally, the positive impact of oil price shocks on production and inflation has been positive.