10 فروردین 1403
ابوالفضل دهقان منفرد

ابوالفضل دهقان منفرد

مرتبه علمی: استادیار
نشانی: دانشکده مهندسی نفت، گاز و پتروشیمی - گروه مهندسی نفت
تحصیلات: دکترای تخصصی / مهندسی نفت
تلفن: 07731222600
دانشکده: دانشکده مهندسی نفت، گاز و پتروشیمی

مشخصات پژوهش

عنوان Modeling the Risk of Commercial Failure for Hydraulic Fracturing Projects Due to Reservoir Heterogeneity
نوع پژوهش مقالات در نشریات
کلیدواژه‌ها
hydraulic fracturing, tight sand, Risk of Commercial Failure (RCF), heterogeneity, uncertainty, Net Present Value (NPV)
مجله Energies
شناسه DOI https://doi.org/10.3390/en11010218
پژوهشگران هادی پرویزی (نفر اول) ، سینا رضایی-گمری (نفر دوم) ، فرهاد نبهانی (نفر سوم) ، ابوالفضل دهقان منفرد (نفر چهارم)

چکیده

Hydraulic fracturing technologies play a major role in the global energy supply and affect oil pricing. The current oil price fluctuations within 40 to 55 USD per barrel have caused diminished economical margins for hydraulic fracturing projects. Hence, successful decision making the for execution of hydraulic fracturing projects requires a higher level of integration of technical, commercial, and uncertainty analyses. However, the complexity of hydraulic fracturing modeling, and the sensitivity and the effects of uncertainty of reservoir heterogeneity on well performance renders the integration of such studies rather impractical. The impact of reservoir heterogeneity on hydraulic fracturing performance has been quantified by the introduction of Heterogeneity Impact Factor (HIF) and formulas have been developed to forecast well performance using HIF. These advances provide a platform for introducing a practical approach for introducing the Risk of Commercial Failure (RCF) due to reservoir heterogeneity in hydraulic fracturing projects. This paper defines such a parameter and the methodology to calculate it in a time-efficient manner. The proposed approach has been exercised on a real project in which a RCF of 20% is computed. The analysis also covers the sensitivity on Capital Expenditure (CAPEX), Operational Expenditure (OPEX), gas price, HIF and discount rate.