Saeed Zarei

The active tectonics of eastern Iran, resulting from the convergence of the Arabian and Eurasian plates and numerous active faults, has caused high stress concentration, as evidenced by major historical earthquakes such as those in Tabas (1978) and Bam (2003). This study aims to conduct a fractal analysis of seismicity parameters and investigate crustal stress heterogeneity in eastern Iran. To this end, an earthquake dataset of historical and instrumental events with Mw ≥ 4 (1900–2024) was compiled from the ISC and NEIC databases. After filtering and declustering, the data were analyzed using ZMAP and ArcGIS. The b-value (an indicator of stress level and the probability of large earthquakes), the D-value (the geometrical complexity of faulting), and the D/b ratio were calculated simultaneously and mapped spatially. The results show that the b-value ranges from 0.8 to 1.1, and the D-value ranges from approximately 1.6 to 2.3. Regions with low b-values and high D-values, especially along the Nehbandan and Dasht- e Bayaz faults, indicate high stress concentrations and an elevated likelihood of larger earthquakes. The total seismic moment of the cataloged earthquakes is estimated at 3.5×10²³ N·m, yielding an average annual seismic moment rate of 2.7×10¹⁶ N·m/yr (calculated by averaging over the available catalog years). The D/b ratio, regarded as an index of stored energy and stress heterogeneity, exceeds two in these zones and exhibits a strong correlation with areas of a high rate of seismic moment release. This pattern implies that an increase in fault geometrical complexity coupled with a decrease in the b-value signals the crust’s approach to the rupture threshold. Thus, by emphasizing the significance of the D/b ratio, the present findings offer a quantitative approach to mapping stress states, fault structures, and the potential for significant earthquakes in eastern Iran.