|
Abstract
|
Background: Maritime transport is a demand derived from international trade, which has a long-standing relationship with international trade. Iran, which owns 10 percent of the world's oil reserves and as the second largest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, affects the international oil market and is also heavily affected by it. Oil price volatilities affect trade between oil-exporting countries and their trading partners directly and indirectly. The demand for maritime transportation is heavily dependent on the performance of the global economy. In the meantime, economic variables of the trading partners in the long run affect the economic and trade growth of the countries.
Aim: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of economic fluctuations of Iran's major trading partners and oil prices on the non-oil throughput of major ports southern in Iran using the Vector Autoregressive approach.
Methodology: This research is an applied research that uses the vector autoregressive approach to determine causal relationships between variables. Results: The results of the impulse-response functions indicate that by causing initial shocks in oil prices, the number of vessels handled by Shahid Rajaee port and the tonnage of non-oil goods loaded and unloaded significantly increase, while for the ports of Imam Khomeini and Bushehr This initial shock increases the number of vessels handled but at the same time, the tonnage of non-oil goods loaded and unloaded decreases significantly. According to error forecast variance decomposition tables, the share of oil price fluctuations in explaining the changes in the tonnage of non-oil goods loaded and unloaded in Shahid Rajaee port is low in the early periods, but after several periods increases significantly. This share is significantly lower for the ports of Imam Khomeini and Bushehr.
Conclusions: an increase in oil prices will increase the non-oil port throughput of Shahid Rajaee Port. S
|