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Abstract
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Mangrove forest store large organic carbon stocks in a setting that is highly-vulnerable to climate-change impacts. As such there is a great need to understand the causes and consequences of land use change on these ecosystems of high ecological value. We examine the expansion pattern of the Jask mangrove forest located in southern Iran over a period of 14years to predict future mangrove expansion in the year 2025. we applied Ca-Markov model to simulate and predict mangrove migration to the landward as a result of sea level rise in Oman sea. Landsat satellite images from 2000 and 2014 which had the same tide range were used to analysis the land cover changes between soil, water and mangroves. Major changes during this period were observed in soil and water which was attributed to rising sea level. Furthermore, the mangrove area in the more seaward position was convert to open water due to sea level rise. Cellular automata algorithm was then used to predict the land cover changes that would occur by the year 2025. Results demonstrated that approximately 21 hectare of mangrove area will be converted to open water, while mangroves are projected to expand by approximately 28 hectare in landward direction. These changes need to be delineated to better inform precise mitigation and adaptation measures.
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