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Abstract
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This study aims to estimate the effects of oil price shocks
on seaborne trade in Iran; in particular, port throughput of three
leading ports through economic fluctuations of three major
trading partners of Iran, based on quarterly data for the period
of 1999Q2 to 2018Q1. We apply a standard vector autoregressive
(VAR) approach using Cholesky decomposition. The results
indicate that with increasing oil revenues in short-run, seaborne
trade be further directed towards Shahid Rajaei port while rising
oil revenues changes the combination of goods handled in
Emam Khomeini and Bushehr ports. In the long run, the share of
oil price fluctuations in explaining the variations of Shahid Rajaei
port throughput is higher than the other two. In fact, increases
in oil revenues cause an increase in the volume of industrial and
containerized seaborne cargo trade.
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