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Abstract
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On 10 April 2020, Iran reported 68,192 COVID-19 cumulative cases including 4232 death and 35,465 recovery
cases. Numerous factors could influence the transmission rate and survival of coronavirus. On this basis and according
to the latest epidemiological researches, both ambient temperature (AT) and population size (PS) can be
considered as significant transmissibility factors for coronavirus. The analysis of receiver operating characteristics
(ROC) allows measuring the performance of a classification model using the confusion matrix. This study intends
to investigate the sensitivity of AT and PS on the transmission rate of the novel coronavirus in different provinces
of Iran. For this purpose, the information of each province of Iran including the annual average of AT and the number
of healthy and diseased cases are categorized. Subsequently, the sensitivity and specificity analyses of both AT
and PS factors are performed. The obtained results confirmthat AT and PS have lowsensibility and high sensitivity,
respectively. Thus, there is no scientific reason to confirm that the number of COVID-19 cases in warmer climates
is less than that ofmoderate or cold climates. Therefore, it is recommended that the cities/provinceswith a
population of over 1.7 million people have stricter inspections and more precise controls as their management
policy.
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