Background:. Buried gas pipeline risk is dynamic due to the changing operating environment as well as numerous random factors. In this research, a dynamic risk assessment model based on system dynamics is proposed to deal with the complexity of a system and its changes with time, because the dynamic system offers unique advantages in revealing the dynamic characteristics of system behavior.
Aim: The main purpose of this research is to provide a model to evaluate dynamic risks in gas transmission pipelines with a dynamic system approach to calculate dynamic individual risk.
Methodology: The current type of research, in terms of its purpose, is an applied method, and in terms of its approach, it is a descriptive and applied research. To gain deep insight, an extensive review of relevant literature on system dynamics, risk assessment methods in the fields of oil and gas industry was conducted to establish a basis for selected parameters for system dynamics modeling and data collection process. The system thinking approach was applied to the knowledge obtained from previous research studies to learn the dynamic interaction between the effective factors in risk assessment. In addition, system dynamics modeling and simulation technique were used to understand the interaction between the effective factors in the failure of gas transmission pipelines.
findings: A dynamic risk assessment model of buried gas pipelines based on system dynamics was proposed to simulate failure probability, gas accident consequences, and individual risk evolution over time. Based on the error probability calculation model and the accident consequence analysis model, equations were obtained for the accurate description of the dynamic evolution behavior of the system. The proposed SD model can be used to assess the risk of pipelines in the gas transmission company and to prevent and pre-warn accidents in the gas industry.
Conclusions: Based on the conducted research, the probability of total failu