Khodakaram Salimifard

Crisis management and the fight against epidemics is one of the most difficult challenges of the 21st century. Epidemics of diseases such as Ebola, MERS, and influenza clearly demonstrate the vulnerability of society in all areas, especially social, economic, and health. This study aims to help decision (policy) makers choose an effective policy in the coronavirus epidemic. Based on the well-known compartmental SIR model, in this research system dynamics will be used. Using the data available, the system dynamics model is made to present the amount and severity of community contamination. To measure the validity of the system dynamics model, the model outputs will be compared and measured with the actual data at hand. By identifying the factors influencing the contamination of the community and also in improving the patients, scenarios for decision-making (policy-making) are created and simulated using system dynamics. By analyzing the simulation outputs of various scenarios, effective solutions for managing the coronavirus epidemic crisis will be proposed. The findings of this study could be used as roadmaps for decision-making authorities in fighting against Coronavirus pandemic.