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چکیده
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Background: Electrical energy has an important role in the production and industrial growth and welfare of the people and that's why is very important. Nowadays iran is one of the largest electricity consumers in the middle east and this causes an increase in power generation capacity and thereby increasingthe cost of government. The high electricity consumption in Iran, the lack of affordable Save it and damage by producing less than adequate, Has caused it necessary to investigate the factors affecting electricity consumption as well as its long-term forecast.
Aim:The objectives of this study are to investigate the factors influencing the electricity consumption the various sectors of iran, comparison of the models forecasting accuracy used in this study using different evaluation criteria and forecast electricity consumption the various sectors of iran with more accurate model of the horizon 1410.
Methodology: In this study used the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag to estimate the electricity consumption function and evaluation of the factors affecting electricity consumption in various sectors of iran. Also used the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Fuzzy Linear Regression, Fuzzy- Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and fuzzy Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag models for forecasting.
Conclusions: Based on the results, the number of electricity consumers, the significant positive relation in four parts, the average price of electricity, the negative and significant relation in the public and residential sectors, per capita income is positive and significant relation in the residential sector and value added in the industrial sector a significant positive relation with electricity consumption. Also the average price of electricity in agriculture and industry sectors is meaningless. According to price and income elasticities it was found that electricity in the residential and industrial sectors is an essential commodity an
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